Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 27, 2015

Technical summary:
Small consolidation seen over the last couple of days does look like a small triangle. As we think the final rally in wave (iii) is still missed, we regard this triangle as red wave 8iv) and will be looking for one more rally higher in red wave iv to 1.9141. We are aware of the risk of being a b-wave triangle. In this case, we will see a break below support at 1.7426 in order to make a decline towards 1.6495.

Trading recommendation:
We will buy on a break above 1.7866 with stop placed at 1.7420 or we will sell on a break below support at 1.7426 with stop placed at 1.7870 (one order cancels the other)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 1, 2015

Technical summary:
There are still no changes in the view - We expect an upside breakout through the minor resistance at 136.62 confirming a continuation higher towards 139.02 and 141.06. A break below support at 135.23 could take place, but we think the downside potential should be limited. Only a break below the important support level of 133.27 will indicate a much more complex correction unfolding from a high of 141.06.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 136.42 with stop placed at 134.90. If you are not long EUR yet, buy a break above 136.62 with a stop at 135.60

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 02, 2015

When the European market opens, some economic news on the PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change will be released .The US will unveile readings for Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Factory Orders m/m, Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1350.
Strong Resistance:1.1344.
Original Resistance: 1.1333.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1322.
Target Inner Area: 1.1296.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1270.
Original Support: 1.1259.
Strong Support: 1.1248.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1242.

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US dollar leaps on volatile stock markets

The US dollar bounced Thursday as global investors scaled back on riskier equities, aggravated by China's devitalizing economy and its volatile stock markets. China's degenerating economy and woes about global growth pressed investors to cut bets in the euro and the Japanese yen. The greenback finished at $1.1210 per euro. Versus the Japanese yen, the dollar closed at ¥120.655. We believe additional easing is possible before the year ends. Such message should uphold sentiment, “which so far has been a drag on risky assets,” said strategists at Barclays. With China's markets shut for a national holiday, investors will now focus on the European Central Bank policy meeting today.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 08, 2015

The pair is already trying to correct the decline that has been unfolding for several days. It could reach the 200 SMA on the H1 chart soon. That level is located at 1.5329, where a pullback could happen in order to gain fresh bearish momentum. There is an opportunity that GBP/USD will break the support level of 1.5272 and fall to 1.5220.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5329 / 1.5479
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5181 / 1.5089
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5329 / 1.5402
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5272 / 1.5220

Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5272, take profit is at 1.5220, and stop loss is at 1.5328.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 09, 2015

GBP/USD is still moving inside a bullish corrective channel which is taking in place on the daily chart. It made a breakout at the level of 1.5329 to the upside. That is why we focus on the territory around 1.5479 in the mid- and short-term, which is the nearest resistance level in this time frame.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 1.5357, with a consolidation zone above the 200 SMA. The resistance level of 1.5402 is the closest one in the short term, where a breakout to the upside should happen in order to reach the next high at 1.5440.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5479 / 1.5559
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5329 / 1.5181
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5402 / 1.5440
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5357 / 1.5319

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5357, take profit is at 1.5319, and stop loss is at 1.5393.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 14, 2015

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. US stocks continued advancing on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.6% to 16433, the S&P 500 rising 0.5% to 1961, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.5% to 4822. Nymex crude oil dropped 2.8% to settle at $44.63 a barrel, gold fell 0.3% to $1107 a troy ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 2.191% from 2.222% on Thursday. While all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision at its September 16-17 meeting, the US dollar weakened against most other major currencies on Friday. The pair is trading below the key resistance at 120.95. Intraday technical indicators are mixed: the 20-period intraday moving average (MA) stays below the 50-period one, while the intraday relative strength indicator (RSI) is above the neutrality level of 50. As long as 120.95 holds as the key resistance, the pair is expected to show choppy price actions with a bearish bias. The first downside target is set at 119.60 (around the low of September 11); and the second one, at 119.10 (around the low of September 10).

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.60. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 119.10. The pivot point stands at 120.95. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.30 and the second target at 121.70.

Resistance levels: 121.70 122 122.50
Support levels: 119.90 119.60 119.20

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 14, 2015

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. US stocks continued advancing on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.6% to 16433, the S&P 500 rising 0.5% to 1961, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.5% to 4822. Nymex crude oil dropped 2.8% to settle at $44.63 a barrel, gold fell 0.3% to $1107 a troy ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 2.191% from 2.222% on Thursday. While all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision at its September 16-17 meeting, the US dollar weakened against most other major currencies on Friday. The pair is trading below the key resistance at 120.95. Intraday technical indicators are mixed: the 20-period intraday moving average (MA) stays below the 50-period one, while the intraday relative strength indicator (RSI) is above the neutrality level of 50. As long as 120.95 holds as the key resistance, the pair is expected to show choppy price actions with a bearish bias. The first downside target is set at 119.60 (around the low of September 11); and the second one, at 119.10 (around the low of September 10).

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.60. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 119.10. The pivot point stands at 120.95. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.30 and the second target at 121.70.

Resistance levels: 121.70 122 122.50
Support levels: 119.90 119.60 119.20

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 15, 2015

Technical summary:
We do not see any changes here as we are still looking for a firm breakout above resistance at 1.7996 in order to perform the next rally higher to 1.8289 and even high to 1.8702 in wave iii of (v). In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.7777 to protect the downside for a breakout above 1.7996.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7490 with stop placed at 1.7620. If you are not long EUR yet, buy on a break above 1.7996 and place you stop at 1.7775.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 16, 2015

When the European market opens, economic news on the German 30-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, and Final CPI y/y is due to be published. The US will release data about the TIC Long-Term Purchases, Crude Oil Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1324.
Strong Resistance:1.1318.
Original Resistance: 1.1307.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1296.
Target Inner Area: 1.1270.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1244.
Original Support: 1.1233.
Strong Support: 1.1223.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1216.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 17, 2015

Technical summary:
A correction in wave ii has taken more time than first expected, but nothing else has changed. We are still looking for a break above resistance at 1.7866 to enable a rally towards at least 1.8288 and most likely even higher to 1.8682 in wave iii. Ideally, support at 1.7702 will be able to protect the downside for a breakout above 1.7866.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7490 with stop at 1.7620. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy on a break above resistance at 1.7866 with stop placed at 1.7700.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for September 18, 2015

Overview:
The AUD/USD pair rose from the strong level of 0.7140 and extended further to as high as 0.7172 yesterday, but it closed at the level of 0.7165 today. It should be noted that support is seen at 0.7140 because this level has also formed double bottom. Furthermore, the price set above 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels since last week. For that purpose, we expect a saturation around the level of 0.7140 or 0.7132. Hence, the market is likely to start showing the signs of a bullish bias again from this spot in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 0.7140 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart). Accordingly, buy above the level of 0.7140 with the first target at 0.7191 besides it will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish movement towards 0.7250 in coming hours. On the other hand, if the bulls are forced to pull back below the level of 0.7125 and sellers can break this level, therefore the best solution is to set a stop loss at the 0.712.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 22, 2015

When the European market opens, economic news about the Consumer Confidence is due to be released. The US will publish economic data on the Richmond Manufacturing Index and HPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1240.
Strong Resistance:1.1234.
Original Resistance: 1.1223.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1212.
Target Inner Area: 1.1186.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1160.
Original Support: 1.1149.
Strong Support: 1.1138.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1132.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 24, 2015

GBP/USD is headed lower making new downside moves below the resistance level of 1.5256. It is expected to form a lower low pattern by the end of the week. Currently, our outlook remains bearish towards the support zone of 1.5169, where a rebound should happen in order to correct the current decline.

On the H1 chart, the pair is showing a bearish consolidation in place below the 200 SMA and this indicator is also pointing to the downside. A breakout below the support level of 1.5223 will enable the pair to test the level of 1.5166 in coming hours. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5256 / 1.5344
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5169 / 1.5030
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5285 / 1.5341
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5223 / 1.5166

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5223, take profit is at 1.5166, and stop loss is at 1.5283.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 25, 2015

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Private Loans y/y and M3 Money Supply y/y. The US will also release the economic reports such as the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Flash Services PMI, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1234.
Strong Resistance:1.1228.
Original Resistance: 1.1217.0
Inner Sell Area: 1.1206.
Target Inner Area: 1.1180.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1154.
Original Support: 1.1143.
Strong Support: 1.1132.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1126.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 28, 2015

Technical summary:
We are entering the final part of the decline from 141.06. Continue to look for a decline closer to 131.45 before a new impulsive rally takes place. In thr short term, we will be looking for a breakout below minor support at 134.75 as the first good indication that the move closer to 131.45 is developing, while a break below support at 134.10 will confirm the decline. Only an unexpected breakout above resistance at 136.03 will confirm that the bottom is already in place for renewed upside pressure.

Trading recommendation: Our stop at 134.95 was hit, but we will sell EUR again upon a break below 134.75 with stop placed at 135.50 and take profit at 131.65.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 29, 2015

When the European market opens, economic news about the Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, German Prelim CPI m/m, and German Import Prices m/m is due to be released.The US will unveil economic data on the CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and Goods Trade Balance. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1284.
Strong Resistance:1.1278.
Original Resistance: 1.1267.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1256.
Target Inner Area: 1.1230.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1204.
Original Support: 1.1193.
Strong Support: 1.1182.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1176.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 30, 2015

In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, and Retail Sales y/y. The US will publish economic data on Crude Oil Inventories, Chicago PMI, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 120.56.
Resistance. 2: 120.33.
Resistance. 1: 120.09.
Support. 1: 119.80.
Support. 2: 119.56.
Support. 3: 119.33.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 1 - 2015

Technical summary:
We have seen a breakout below 1.7453, which was quite unexpected and that has shifted the picture from a potential bullish count to a bearish calling for more downside toward 1.6781 where this correction will have corrected 38.2% of a rally from 1.3881 to 1.8554. In the short term, we expect minor resistance at 1.74994 to protect the upside for a decline to 1.7070.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.7450 was hit for a small loss, We will sell EUR at 1.7480 with stop placed at 1.7580.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 5, 2015

Technical summary:
Prices spiked higher on Friday due to the weak Non Farm Payrolls data, but only to resume an underlying decline towards at least a 38.2% corrective target at 1.6781. In the short term, we are watching for a break below 1.7294 (the bottom of wave i of C) to confirm wave iii moving lower to at least 1.7028. At this point, only an unexpected rally above 1.7650 will question the underlying bearish count.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.7580 was hit due to a price spike on Friday, but we remain bearish and still see a nice downside potential. So, we will like to short EUR at 1.7530 with a stop at 1.7660.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 06, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any economic data, but the US will deliver economic news on the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and Trade Balance. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 121.12.
Resistance. 2: 120.88.
Resistance. 1: 120.64.
Support. 1: 120.35.
Support. 2: 120.11.
Support. 3: 119.87.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 6 - 2015

Technical summary:
Yesterday , a breakout above 135.10 indicated that wave 2 ended at 132.23 and wave 3 higher was already developing. If this count is correct, support at 133.48 must protect the downside for a strong rally higher to at least 141.00 and possibly even higher. As wave (ii) of 3 was an expanded flat correction, we know that the likelihood of wave (iii) extending is very high. That means wave (iii) should be at least 161.8% times the length of wave (i). In the short term, we will ideally see support at 134.28, but we must accept the possibility of a deeper corrective decline from 135.71. A breakout below 133.48 will invalidate the bullish count.

Trading recommendation: We bought EUR at 135.10 and will place our stop at 133.45 expecting to raise it quickly. If you are not long EUR yet, buy EUR near 134.28 or upon a breakout above 135.71 using the same stop.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 07, 2015

On the daily chart, GBP/USD has been extending a rebound towards the resistance level of 1.5256. The cable is forming a lower low pattern and the current moves should be a preparation for a further decline.

The short-term outlook indicates recovery from after a fall held below the suport zone of 1.5166, and now GBP/USD is forming a higher high pattern above the 200 SMA in the H1 chart, in order to perform a rally towards the resistance level of 1.5285. However, we are still expecting an inminent breakout below the zone of 1.5223.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5256 / 1.5325
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5169 / 1.5030
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5285 / 1.5342
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5223 / 1.5166

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5223, take profit is at 1.5166, and stop loss is at 1.5276.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 08, 2015

GBP/USD had a strong bullish momentum above support zone of 1.5169 and we could say that level is currently acting as a major bottom on the cable. Currently, we expect a breakout above the resistance level of 1.5325 in order to reach the level of 1.5381. However, a pullback around current levels will send this pair to test the zone of 1.5256.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD has been performing a consolidation above the support level of 1.5285 with a higher high pattern formation. Also, a breakout above 1.5342 will open the door to the psychological zone of 1.5400. The 200 SMA is slightly pointing to the upside, but the MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5325 / 1.5381
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5256 / 1.5169
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5342 / 1.5400
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5282 / 1.5223

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5342, take profit is at 1.5400, and stop loss is at 1.5285.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 12, 2015

Today, no economic data is expected to be delivered from the European-London and US markets. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1422.
Strong Resistance:1.1415.
Original Resistance: 1.1404.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1393.
Target Inner Area: 1.1366.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1339.
Original Support: 1.1328.
Strong Support: 1.1317. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1310.

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