Forex News from InstaForex

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In this thread we present fresh Forex news. Our news contain exhaustive information about topical events and facts of the financial world; we offer international statistical data in order to help you correct and enhance your trading strategy. We also present video news from InstaForex-TV portal. InstaForex-TV channel provides the latest information about fluctuations of currency rates and forecasts their influence on the future movement of currencies. Our news will be especially useful if you prefer intraday trading and use fundamental analysis.

Gold Retains Gains on Hopes fED Will Delay Interest Rate Hike

Spot gold was little changed at $1,212.81 an ounce by 0030 GMT. The metal closed up 0.3 percent on Wednesday, after dropping to a six-week low of $1,197.56 earlier in the session. Fed policymakers expressed concern last month that raising rates too soon could pour cold water on the U.S. economic recovery, and fretted over the impact of dropping "patient" from the central bank's rate guidance. The minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 policy-setting meeting, released on Wednesday, show officials grappling to square solid U.S. economic growth with the weakness in international markets, as well as worrying about falling inflation expectations in the United States. Global equity markets advanced on Wednesday while the dollar pulled back from earlier gains following the release of the Fed minutes. Gold had come under pressure in recent months from expectations the Fed will raise interest rates as early as June, potentially lifting the dollar and hurting non-interest-yielding assets like bullion. If interest rates are kept near record lows for longer, bullion's appeal could increase.

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Japan Manufacturing Sector Slows In February - Markit

The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in February, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Markit Economics showed on Friday with a PMI score of 51.5. That was well shy of forecasts for a score of 52.5, and it was down from 52.2 in January. The February reading represents a seven-month low score, although it remains above the boom-or-bust score of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components, the manufacturing output index was steady at 52.7, suggesting that production growth remains solid, Markit said.

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BoJ Minutes: Moderate Pace For Economic Recovery

The members of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy committee believe that the pace of the country's economic recovery remains moderate, minutes from the bank's policy meeting on January 20 and 21 revealed on Monday. They also noted that capital spending was on the upswing as corporate profits continued to grow. "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend, and effects such as those of the decline in demand following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike have been waning on the whole. Overseas economies -- mainly advanced economies --have been recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part," the minutes said. The members did concede that they were likely to miss their desired inflation target of 2 percent following years of deflation - due mainly to tumbling energy prices. Citing lower crude oil prices, the BoJ downgraded its core inflation estimate for fiscal 2015 to 1 percent from 1.7 percent. But the central bank lifted the forecast for fiscal 2016 to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent. "Inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective," the bank said. "The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to slow for the time being, reflecting the decline in energy prices." At the meeting, the BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged and lowered its near-term inflation forecast. The bank also extended its loan scheme by one year in order to encourage lending. The central bank also decided by an 8-1 vote to maintain its target of raising the monetary base at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion. The bank said major risks to the outlook are developments in the emerging and commodity-exporting economies, the prospects regarding the debt problem and the risk of low inflation rates being protracted in Europe, and the pace of recovery in the United States. The bank raised its fiscal 2015 growth outlook to 2.1 percent from 1.5 percent. For fiscal 2016, the bank projected 1.6 percent real growth instead of 1.2 percent. "Quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) has been exerting its intended effects, and the Bank will continue with the QQE, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It will examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate," the bank said.

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Japan Corporate Service Prices Rise 3.4% In January

An index measuring corporate Service prices in Japan was up 3.4 percent on year in January, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 102.3. That was below expectations for an increase of 3.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading prior to a downward revision to 3.5 percent. On a monthly basis, prices dipped 0.5 percent after easing 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the individual components, prices were lower for communications, transportation and leasing; they were higher for advertising, machinery repair and real estate.

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Nzd/usd Skips Higher Past 0.7500 to 0.7521, in Line With Aud

0.7534 50% Fibonacci of Jan/Feb decline coupled with 0.7535 overnight top as close resistance


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Fx Vol Collapses: Rbc Capital

The collapse of FX vol that is underway with Yellen and Greece behind us, according to RBC Capital Research. The ECB's Global Hazard Index, at 9.95, is down more than 3 vols from Friday's close and at its lowest level since early-November. With vol and spreads in other asset classes already low, this has caused our overall Risk Aversion Thermometer to fall to almost one standard deviation risk seeking (-7.3) and its lowest level since last May. This is a positive background for riskier and higher-yielding currencies

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New Zealand Jan Money Supply Rises At Slower Rate

New Zealand's money supply growth slowed in January, figures from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed Friday. M3 money supply rose 6.2 percent year-on-year to NZ$283.745 billion in January. This follows a 6.3 percent rise in December. In the same month of the previous year, money supply had risen 6.5 percent. On a monthly basis, money supply growth eased to 0.2 percent in January from 1 percent in December.

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Australia Company Operating Profit Dips 0.2% In Q4

Gross operating profits for companies in Australia eased a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. That was well shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent, which would have been steady from the previous three months. On a yearly basis, profits tumbled 5.9 percent. Wages and salaries added 0.3 percent on quarter and 0.8 percent on year, the bureau said, while inventories dipped 0.8 percent on quarter and 0.5 percent on year.

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Japan Monetary Base Surges 36.7% In February

The monetary base in Japan spiked 36.7 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, coming in at 275.261 trillion yen. That follows the 37.4 percent annual surge in January. Banknotes in circulation added 3.7 percent on year, while coins in circulation added 0.8 percent. Current account balances climbed 63.6 percent, including a 64.6 percent spike in reserve balances. The adjusted monetary base climbed 43.2 percent on year to 285.688 trillion yen.

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Ecb Will Likely Revise Growth up and Inflation Down



After the announcement of the expanded asset purchase programme (quantitative easing - 'QE') in January, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to refrain from further new measures in the near term. Thursday's post-meeting press conference will likely focus on the updated ECB staff forecasts for the euro-area economy; Standard Chartered research notes: We expect growth to be revised upwards for 2015 and 2016, and inflation to be revised downwards in 2015. In addition, President Draghi will likely further clarify the QE programme, and may be questioned over how the ECB intends to deal with negative yields and a potential shortfall in sellers; e.g., of German Bunds. He is also likely to comment on Greek banks' access to ECB liquidity operations.

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Eur/jpy on Back Foot in Large Way Overnight, down from 133.89 to 132.41, Await Ecb

Some stops sub-132.50, 132.00, key downside support 130.16 1/26 spike low

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Contraction Accelerates For Australia Construction Sector

The construction sector in Australia contracted at a faster pace in February, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed on Friday, with a Performance of Construction Index score of 43.9. That's down significantly from 45.9 in January, and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust reading of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Overall, it's the fourth straight month of decline. Among the individual components of the survey, new orders, activity, employment and deliveries from suppliers all continued to contract. By industry, the heaviest declines came in mining and commercial building - although apartment building swung higher to expansion.

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Japan Has Y61.4 Billion Current Account In January

Japan had a current account surplus of 61.4 billion yen in January, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday. That missed forecasts for a surplus of 270.4 billion yen following the 187.2 billion yen surplus in December. The trade balance showed a deficit of 864.2 billion yen - which beat expectations for a shortfall of 936.0 billion yen following the 395.6 billion yen deficit in the previous month. Exports climbed 15.3 percent on year to 6.332 trillion yen, the data showed, while imports shed 8.9 percent to 7.196 trillion yen. The adjusted current account surplus was 1,058.1 billion yen - below expectations for 1,179.6 billion yen following the 852.8 billion yen surplus a month earlier.

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Japan Core Machine Orders Dip 1.7% In January

Core machine orders in Japan contracted 1.7 percent on month in January, the Cabinet Office said on Wednesday - worth 838.9 billion yen. The headline figure beat expectations for a decline of 4.0 percent following the 8.3 percent surge in December. On a yearly basis, core machine orders added 1.9 percent - also topping forecasts for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 11.4 percent spike in the previous month. The total number of machinery orders, including those volatile ones for ships and from electric power companies, gained 14.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year. Manufacturing orders shed 11.3 percent on month but gained 7.3 percent on year to 351.8 billion yen in January, while non-manufacturing orders added 3.7 percent on month but lost 1.9 percent on year to 494.5 billion yen. Government orders gained 25.8 percent on month and 37.4 percent on year to 346.7 billion yen. Orders from overseas climbed 24.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year to 990.6 billion yen. Orders from agencies tumbled 13.9 percent on month and 6.3 percent on year to 99.3 billion yen. For the first quarter of 2015, core machine orders are forecast to have risen 1.5 percent on quarter but lost 0.9 percent on year to 2,455.2 billion yen. Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan said that its index measuring producer prices was unchanged on month in February, the Bank of Japan said, standing at 103.3. That was in line with expectations following the 1.3 percent contraction in January. On a yearly basis, prices added 0.5 percent - beating forecasts for a gain of 0.4 percent following the 0.3 percent increase in the previous month. Export prices lost 0.8 percent on month and 5.2 percent on year, the data showed, while import prices tumbled 4.9 percent on month and 17.9 percent on year.

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Usd/jpy Bounce Back After Spike down to 120.65 After US Retail Sales Miss

USD/JPY spikes down to 120.65 after large US retail sales miss Pair bounce back to 121.42 in New York, range again in Asia

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Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales Rise 2.9% In February

The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 95,737. That follows the downwardly revised 1.9 percent decline in January (originally -1.5 percent). On a yearly basis, new motor vehicle sales advanced 4.1 percent - accelerating from 0.2 percent in the previous month. By category, sales of passenger vehicles dipped 0.9 percent on month, while other vehicles eased 0.3 percent and sport utility vehicles surged 10.5 percent. By region, the Northern Territory saw the largest percentage increase (22.4 percent) followed by South Australia (8.8 percent) and the Australian Capital Territory (5.9 percent).

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Aud/usd Move Lower from 0.7638 to 0.7611 on Dovish Rba Minutes

RBA considered rate cut at March meet but decided to pause for more data AUD/USD back to 0.7626 last and down 0.15% on the day

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Fed Likely to Remove ‘patient’ Guidance

Markets eagerly await Wednesday's FOMC decision (post-meeting statement and updated projections: 14:00 ET, Chair Yellen's press conference: 14:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes: We think the Fed will remove the "patient" guidance from the statement as it seeks to move towards a more flexible, data-dependent framework. We do not think the softer recent data (e.g., housing, manufacturing production, Michigan consumer survey) changes this picture as the Fed is likely to blame recent weaker data on the harsh weather and emphasize strong payroll growth data. Payroll additions have averaged a solid 293,000/month in the past six months. We do not think the removal of 'patient' automatically means a June rate hike, which Chair Yellen is likely to underscore in her press conference. We think the Fed is likely to wait until September, after core PCE inflation troughs and with more signs that wage growth is on a sustainable uptrend. The Fed may also see more evidence of improving growth in Q2 to support its view that soft Q1 data was weather-related. The shape of the tightening cycle will be an important topic: we expect Yellen to say it is likely to be very gradual, and remain data-dependent. We do not think Yellen will 'talk down' the US dollar's recent strength as, although a headwind, she may emphasise it may be offset by the boost to consumption from lower oil prices and the ongoing underlying improvement in domestic demand.

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Usd/jpy to 119.29 Post fED Taking Out Longs, Bounce to 120.1 Since

Some large 120.00 option expiries too, USD447 million

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New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index Ticks Higher In March - ANZ

Consumer confidence in New Zealand inched slightly higher in March, the latest survey from ANZ Bank showed on Friday - gaining 0.5 percent on month to a score of 124.6. That follows the 3.8 percent tumble in February to a reading of 120.0. "(The result is) a positive sign for a sustainable trend in retail spending," ANZ said in a statement accompanying the data. "The underlying message remains one of optimism."

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Crude Oil Ends Sharply Higher As Dollar Weakens; Gains 4% For Week

U.S. crude oil ended sharply higher on Friday, as the dollar tumbled against a basket of major currencies, under pressure from the Fed's statement regarding rate hikes. Investors largely ignored the supply glut situation, despite indications that global stockpiles will continue to rise. Oil futures recorded a weekly gain of about 4 percent, for the first time in five weeks. With the Federal Reserve providing a somewhat muddled outlook on interest rate hikes two days ago, most commodities and currencies took off on a roller-coaster ride. The Fed withdrew its promise to be patient on interest rate hikes, but then downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy and signaled tightening would not occur until the second half of the year. Fed Chief Janet Yellen took a dovish stand with some lower outlook for inflation and GDP growth, signaling that interest rate is likely to rise at a slower pace than expected earlier. Crude oil initially rallied on the Fed's statement indicating rate hikes will be pushed out until at least July, but prices then moved back toward recent 6-year lows. However, traders continued to take stock of rising global inventories and the reluctance of OPEC and non-OPEC nations alike to cut supplies. Light Sweet Crude Oil futures for April delivery surged $1.76 or 4 percent to settle at $45.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. Crude prices for April delivery scaled a high of $46.53 a barrel intraday and a low of $43.31. Light Sweet Crude Oil futures for May delivery, the most actively traded contract, jumped $1.04 or 2.3 percent to settle at $46.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. Crude prices for May delivery scaled a high of $47.43 a barrel intraday and a low of $44.82. On Thursday, U.S. crude futures for April delivery surged $1.20 or 2.8 percent to settle at $44.66 a barrel, as the dollar strengthened even as the post-Federal Reserve rally quickly ran out of steam amid concerns of a supply glut. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six major currencies, traded at 97.86 on Friday, down from its previous close of 99.07 on Thursday in late North American trade. The dollar scaled a high of 99.12 intraday and a low of 97.45. The euro trended higher against the dollar at $1.0826 on Friday, as compared to its previous close of $1.0661 in North American trade late Thursday. The euro scaled a high of $1.0882 intraday and a low of $1.0650. In economic news, eurozone current account surplus in January grew from a year ago, as trade surplus and primary income rose sharply, figures from the European Central Bank revealed Friday. The current account surplus rose to EUR 29.4 billion from EUR 18.1 billion a year ago. In December, the surplus was EUR 22.5 billion. A measure of turning points in the German economy in coming months grew at a slower rate in January, data from the Conference Board showed Friday. The leading economic index for Germany rose 0.4 percent monthly after a 0.8 percent climb in the previous month. In the six months to January, the index added 0.3 points, moving back into positive territory for the first time since June 2014. Germany's producer prices dropped more-than-expected in February, figures from Destatis showed Friday. The producer price index fell 2.1 percent year-over-year in February, exceeding economists' expectations for a 2.0 percent drop. The U.K. budget deficit showed its smallest budget deficit for February since 2008 on robust income tax receipts suggesting that the government is on the course to achieve its budget targets. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks declined by GBP 3.5 billion to GBP 6.9 billion in February, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. It was forecast to fall to GBP 8.4 billion. The majority of the households in the UK perceived that the value of their houses increased in March, after moderating in the previous month, results of a survey conducted by Knight Frank and Markit Economics showed Friday. The house price sentiment index, or HPSI, rose to 57.5 in March from 56.5 in February. This marked the twenty-fourth consecutive month of the index remaining above 50.

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Usd pressured by Commodities Gains, Lower Yields

Gold soars Friday, other commodities up. US yields also steady at lower levels seen post-Fed, US Tsy 10s at 1.931%.

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Australian Dollar Falls After China Manufacturing PMI

The Australian dollar weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday, after data showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March. Data from HSBC Bank showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March, with a PMI score of 49.2. That was well shy of forecasts for 50.5, and it was down sharply from 50.7 in February. Now at an 11-month low, the index also dipped below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. The Australian dollar fell to 93.83 against the yen, 1.3930 against the euro and 1.0260 against the NZ dollar, from yesterday's closing quotes of 94.32, 1.3889 and 1.0293, respectively. Against the Canada and U.S. dollars, the aussie dropped to 0.9814 and 0.7836 from an early near 2-month high of 0.9880 and nearly a 4-week high of 0.7901, respectively. At yesterday's close, the aussie was trading at 0.9863 against the loonie and 0.7878 against the greenback. If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 91.50 against the yen, 1.36 against the euro, 1.01 against the kiwi, 0.96 against the loonie and 0.75 against the greenback.

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Saudi Arabia Starts Bombing Targets in Yemen, Bullish for Oil Price

Saudi envoy to US says has launched a military operation in Yemen to defend government of president Saudi envoy says military operation in Yemen involves 10 countries including gulf Arab countries Saudi envoy says Yemen Houthi militia forces are in control ballistic weapons Saudi envoy says Hadi and other members of his cabinet are continuing to run the government from Aden Saudi envoy says trying to save Yemen from radical group, have decided to assist Yemen government as requested Saudi envoy says objective of operation is protecting and defending legitimate government of Yemen Saudi envoy says consulted about the military operation with the United States Ssaudi envoy says military operation in Yemen involves air strikes Saudi envoy says declines to give current location of hadi, refers questions to Yemeni officials Saudi envoy says military operation is based on UN and Arab league charters that justify support for Hadi's government Saudi envoy says Houthi militia has control of Yemeni air force Saudi envoy says has air assets from various countries in Saudi Arabia and other military assets on the way to the kingdom Saudi envoy says military operation is not limited to one particular city or region of Yemen Saudi envoy says "having yemen fail is not an option for us" Saudi envoy says military operation Yemen started at 7 p.m. EST and the US is not participating in the operation

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