Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 8 - 2015

Technical summary:
An expected correction in red wave ii/ is unfolding. We will be looking for a correction towards 138.03 as an ideal downside target before the next impulsive rally higher to 144.03 and higher towards 150.77. In the short term, only a break above minor resistance at 140.54 will indicate that the correction is already over. It is calling for the next impulsive rally upwards. We have to remember that corrections in the third wave tend to be small.


Trading recommendation:
We will buy EUR at 138.35 or upon a break above 140.54 with a stop placed at 136.25 expecting to be able to raise the stop quickly.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 09, 2015

A daily chart is still showing a lower low pattern formation, as the pair remains below the resistance level of 1.5346. Now, we are expecting a lower continuation, because that resistance is very strong and the bearish bias is likely to start dominating the trend in the GBP/USD pair again. The MACD indicator is entering oversold territory. At the H1 chart, the support zone of 1.5259 remains very solid, because the pair was rejected at that level. Now it's trying to break the resistance level of 1.5358. The next higher target is seen at 1.5428 level, which is above the 200 SMA. However, that moving average could act as dynamic resistance.

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 10, 201

The USDX is currently trading above the support level of 94.66 and there is a strong fight between bears and bulls, because the Index could do a rebound at current levels. Thanks to a possible bullish momentum, which could give that support zone mentioned above. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory. There are no major changes in the short-term outlook for the USDX, but the Index is still moving above the support level of 95.15, a zone which rejected the US Dollar Index during yesterday's session. Currently, we should expect a rise towards the resistance level of 95.71 and a breakout could happen there in coming hours.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.97
Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75
H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.71 / 96.16
H1 chart's support levels: 95.15 / 94.63

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level isseen at 95.71, take profit is at 96.16, and stop loss is at 96.32.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 11, 2015

In Asia, Japan will release the BSI Manufacturing Index. The US is ixpected to publish data on the 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.66. Resistance. 2: 123.42. Resistance. 1: 123.18. Support. 1: 122.88. Support. 2: 122.64. Support. 3: 122.40.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 12 - 2015

Technical summary:
A correction in red wave ii/ is still unfolding and as long as minor resistance at 139.61 protects the upside. We will be looking for a final decline closer to 138.03 to end red wave ii/ and set the stage for a strong rally in red wave iii/ higher to 144.03 on the way towards 150.77. It will take an unexpected break below support at 135.10 to invalidate more upside pressure and indicate that the rally from 126.05 only was a correction, but this is clearly not the preferred count.


Trading recommendation:
We will buy EUR at 138.10 or upon a break above 139.61. The stop should be placed at 137.00

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2015

On the daily chart, the price action is calling for more upside above the 200 SMA and the nearest target is located around the level of 1.5755, which is a strong resistance zone. However, don't forget the GBP/USD pair could start to do corrective moves in the short term, because we have been watching a very strong bullish trend development over the last days. There is an interesting bullish structure formed on the H1 chart, because the pair has been trading higher above the support level at 1.5610. We expect a breakout of the resistance level at 1.5671 in order to reach the next high around 1.5721. The MACD indicator is entering in the negative territory and the 200 SMA is still bullish.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5755 / 1.5898
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5346
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5671 / 1.5721
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5610 / 1.5548

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5671, take profit is at 1.5721, and stop loss is at 1.5621.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 18, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not expected to release economic data today. However, the US will publish data data on the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Current Account, Unemployment Claims, Core CPI m/m, amd CPI m/m. So, there is a big probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 123.93. Resistance. 2: 123.67. Resistance. 1: 123.44. Support. 1: 123.15. Support. 2: 122.91. Support. 3: 122.66.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 24, 2015

When the European market opens, economic data on Belgian NBB Business Climate is due.The US will release data on Crude Oil Inventories, Final GDP Price Index q/q, anf Final GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1227.
Strong Resistance:1.1221.
Original Resistance: 1.1210.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1199.
Target Inner Area: 1.1173.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1148.
Original Support: 1.1136.
Strong Support: 1.1126.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1120.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 25, 2015

GBP/USD was moving in a bearish trend during yesterday's session as we can see on daily chart. Now it's looking for an opportunity to fall to the 200 SMA. Anyway, if that happens, GBP/USD will remain bullish in our mid-term outlook as long as it stays above that moving average. However, if the pair does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5775, it will reach the level of 1.5898.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 25, 2015


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 9.5% to 13.26, S&P 500 closed 0.74% lower at 2,108.58 overnight) on renewed worries over Greece's debt crisis. After a list of economic measures, Greece said it was willing to undertake in exchange for financial aid, was rejected. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.7 bps to 2.372% Wednesday) and Japan's exports. But USD sentiment is soothed as the US Q1 GDP was revised to -0.2% from previous estimate of -0.7%. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is rising from oversold levels but the MACD is bearish, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 125. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.95. The pivot point is at 124.15.

Resistance levels: 124.60 125 125.45
Support levels: 122.30 122.95 122.55

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 29, 2015

When the European market opens, economic data on the Spanish Flash CPI y/y and German Prelim CPI m/m is due. The US will release economic data on the Pending Home Sales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1028.
Strong Resistance:1.1022.
Original Resistance: 1.1011.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1000.
Target Inner Area: 1.0975.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0950.
Original Support: 1.0939.
Strong Support: 1.0928.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0922.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 30, 2015

GBP/USD closed the bearish gap. On the daily chart, we still can observe a test at the resistance level of 1.5755 and if the pair does a breakout over there, it would be expected to test the next key high around the level of 1.5898. Also, bulls are getting stronger, but bear in mind the current situation in Greece. At the H1 chart, GBP/USD has been trading sideways, but remains above the 200 SMA. The current situation in Greece makes us think about the possibility to take long positions at this stage. GBP/USD is expected to rally towards new highs, as 200 SMA provides dynamic support, but be cautious anyway.

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Tankan Manufacturing Index. The US is expected to unveil data on Total Vehicle Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with a medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 123.17.
Resistance. 2: 122.93.
Resistance. 1: 122.69.
Support. 1: 122.40.
Support. 2: 122.16.
Support. 3: 121.92.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 02, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4770 after testing resistance at 1.4800 levels yesterday. Please note that the pair has produced a bearish evening star candlestick pattern indicating a potential pullback lower. It seems that the first leg of a rally from the level of 1.4150 havebeen finished and a corrective drop towards 1.4400 should take place soon. It is recommended to remain short with risk at 1.4830. Immediate support is seen at 1.4500/50 followed by 1.4400 and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4800 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations: Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4830, a target is 1.4400.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 6, 2015

EUR/USD: The market is berish now and the price is expected to continue going further downwards. It should be able to test at least the support level of 1.1000 and 1.0950 this week. Only a movement above the resistance line at 1.1400 could render this expectation invalid.

USD/CHF: Following the severe bearish plunge that happened on June 29, the USD/CHF pair has vividly rallied. The price has gone upwards by 250 pips from the support level at 0.9250, testing the resistance level at 0.9500. There is currently a shallow bearish retracement in the market but the resistance level of 0.9500 could be tested again, and eventually breached to the upside. When the price goes below the support of 0.9250, the existing bullish outlook would be useless.

GBP/USD: As forecasted, the GBP/USD pair broke below the distribution territory of 1.5650 testing the recalcitrant accumulation territory around 1.5600. The recent equilibrium phase is over, and it has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. There is a possibility that this is the beginning of a protracted downtrend.

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair provides short-term traders and scalpers with an opportunuty to thrive. There have been short-term swings in the market as the oscillates between the supply level of 124.00 and the demand level of 122.00. The market calls for a break above the aforementioned supply level or demand level before there could be strong directional movement.

EUR/JPY: We expext significant strengthening in the euro to cause the instrument to skyrocket this week; whereas, any serious weakness in the euro would cause it to plummet.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 07, 2015

GBP/USD found bottom around the 200 SMA on the daily chart and now we could expect some kind of rebound over there in order to reach the resistance level of 1.5755. However, if the pair does a breakout at the support level of 1.5543, it would be expected to test a low around 1.5450. The MACD indicator is still at negative territory.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 08, 2015

In Asia, Japan will release data on the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Bank Lending y/y, and Current Account. The US will publish economic data about Consumer Credit m/m, FOMC Meeting Minutes, 10-y Bond Auction, and Crude Oil Inventories. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 122.79.
Resistance. 2: 122.55.
Resistance. 1: 122.31.
Support. 1: 122.02.
Support. 2: 121.78.
Support. 3: 121.54.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 10, 2015

The daily pivot point sets at the price of 0.6766.

Overview: The NZD/USD pair is still moving in a strong downward trend in the medium time frame. Additionally, according to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been trapped between 0.6772 and 0.6700. So, it makes sense to be neutral at this spot for that we expect a daily range of 72 pips approximately. Equally important, the support has set at the level of 0.6691 and minor support has set at 0.6728 since yesterday. On the other hand, the strong resistance had already placed at 0.6772 and 0.6807, which are coinciding with the ratios of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and the golden ratio respectively.

The NZD/USD pair will give a good sign to sell below 0.6772 and 0.680 with a target of 0.6728. Also, if the trend is able to break the level of 0.6728, it will resume to 0.6700. However, if the trend fails to close below the strong support (0.6700), the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.6700 in the short term. Thereupon, the level of 0.6700 is going to act as strong support. Therefore, it will a good sign to buy during the correction and open short trades above it 0.6700 with a target at 0.6775.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is underpinned by a rebound in China's stocks on Thursday, the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen and the yen-funded carry trades as risk sentiment improves after Greece's submission of new reform proposals that appear to be closer to the creditors' demands on VAT and pensions. It raises hopes for positive outcome at Sunday's summit of the European Union members in Brussels. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year rose 11.1 bps to 2.317% Thursday) and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the more-than-expected 297,000 US jobless Claims for the week ended on July 4 (versus forecast 275,000). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining but stochastics is turning bullish near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 and the second target at 123.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1121.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 121.20. The pivot point is at 1122.

Resistance levels: 123.30 123.70 124
Support levels: 121.60 121.20 121

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 13, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not expected to release economic data today. However, the US will publish data data on the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Current Account, Unemployment Claims, Core CPI m/m, amd CPI m/m. So, there is a big probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF pair is trading around the levels of 1.4550/60 at the moment and is expected to resume its rally from the level of 1.4400. As seen here, the support trendline and fibonacci 0.618 support level is passing through the same region (1.4400/30). It is hence recommended to initiate fresh long positions around 1.4400/30 with risk at 1.4250. Immediate support is seen at the level of 1.4400 followed by 1.4250 and lower while resistance is seen around 1.4725 followed by 1.4830 and higher respectively. Bulls should be poised to push the pair through fresh swing highs around 1.4400/30.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions around 1.4400/30 levels, stop is at 1.4250, a target is open.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 14, 2015

GBP/USD made an important pullback at the resistance level of 1.5543, which could be the first step towards a lower low in the daily chart. Also, we should expect a breakout at the support level of 1.5450, with a target placed around the zone of 1.5327. The MACD indicator remains at negative territory supporting our short-term bearish outlook, but be cautious with possible trend-changes.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD was rejected by the price zone above the 200 SMA and now it's looking to test the support level of 1.5458. Now, the near-term target is placed at the downside, around the support level of 1.5458. If the pair manage to brake that level, it would be expected to test the level of 1.5412 very soon.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5543 / 1.5640
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5450 / 1.5327
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5524 / 1.5596
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5458 / 1.5412

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5458, take profit is at 1.5412, and stop loss is at 1.5501.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 15, 2015

The pair managed to move higher, but rejected at the higher levels again. It closed below 100Dsma. ZEW indicator of economic sentiment inGermany slightly declined in July 2015. It decreased by 1.8 points compared to the previous month and now stands at the level of 29.7. Besides, US retail sales data unexpectedly fell down 0.3%. May's numbers were revised little bit down. Trend- The weekly resistance is seen at 1.1035, 1.1095, and 1.1125. Until the pair closes below 1.1125 use every rise to sell towards 1.0720 and even 1.0500. Earlier, the pair made a double top at 1.1465 and at 1.1225 is a new cap. We are pesimistic about the longer-term forecast. Intraday- The pair was rejected at 100Dsma (1.1020) again at today's Asian session.The intraday support is found at 1.0990 and 1.0970. Strong selling emerges below 1.0890 towards 1.0850 initially. Later, it is likely to expand a bearish wave towards 1.0720. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1020, 1.1050, and 1.1085. The selling trade is available with sl 1.1025 targets at 1.0970, 1.0950, 1.0920, and 1.0890. If a bounce takes place, use rises to sell with sl 1.1070 during a day.

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GBP/USD - Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for July 02 - 06, 2012

Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver is trading around the level of $15.05 after hitting lows at $15.00 overnight. Please note that the metal is trading right around its fibonacci 0.618 support around $15.00/20 as depicted here. Furthermore, the metal had taken out resistance at $15.85 earlier, and is expected to move higher towards $16.40/50. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at $14.30 . Immediate support is seen at $14.50/60 followed by $14.30 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.40 followed by $17.20 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop is at $14.30, a target is open.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 20, 2015

Ahead of the major events, the aussie is trading lower against USD. Monetary policy meeting minutes ate due today, data on CPI and speech of RBA governor Stevens are scheduled for tomorrow. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The nearest support zone is found at 0.7330, 0.7300, and 0.7250. In the daily chart, the pair closed below a neckline of a bearish h&s pattern. This indicates further lows in the coming weeks. The weekly resistance is seen at 0.7380, 0.7420, and 0.7500. Earlier, the pair made a double top at 0.7500. Use rises to sell until the price closes below 0.7500. At the intraday session, selling is available below 0.7330 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7250, and 0.7220.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 21, 2015

Given lack of macroeconomic data, today is understandably a quiet day on the euro and USD markets. Things should pick up rapidly on Friday, however as we don't have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward. The pair closed below 20Wsma.
The pair reached a large distribution territory between 1.1467 and 1.1437. In the daily chart, the pair lost all moving averages. The nearest support is found at 1.0785. We advised selling on rises with a target at 1.0720. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1080. In different time intervals (hourly and daily charts), the oscillators indicate oversold levels.
The pair has been reaching lower lows and lower highs, falling below the lower end of the ascending trendline. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.0780 with an initial target at 1.0720 and extending towards 1.0630 later.
Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0840, 1.0870, and 1.0910. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0750, and 1.0720.
Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0920, 1.0960, and 1.0980. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0720, and 1.0650.
Monthly support is found at 1.0730.

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