Wave Analysis by InstaForex

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 20, 2015

Overview: The NZD/USD pair will probably continue straight from the level of 0.7478 (at 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H1 chart). Besides, it should be noted that the double bottom will be formed at the same level of 0.7478. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strenght following the break of the first resistance level of 0.7500. So it will be a good idea to buy above the level of 0.7470 or/and 0.7500 with the first target of 0.7548 and further towards the last peak point 0.7577 (it will act as a strong resistance, so that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it should be also noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 100% of Fibonacci). However, in case reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7478, the market will lead to further decline to 0.7443 and then 0.7414 in order to indicate for the bearish market on February 20, 2015.
Trading recommendations: According to previous events, the price will move between 0.7577 and 0.7415. Buy above 0.7480 with the first target of 0.7546, it might resume to 0.7570. Below the level of 0.7463 look for further downside with the 0.7443 and 0.7414 targets.


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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 25, 2012

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument moved largely sideways last week as bulls and bears struggled in vain for significant supremacy, being swayed by transitory buying and selling pressure. There is a support line at 1.1300 and a resistance line at 1.1450; and the price would break either to the downside or the upside. Nevertheless, a break above the resistance line at 1.1450 is more likely this week.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 27, 2015

Overview: The market of the USD/CAD pair is continuing to show signs of strength following the break level of 1.2402. Besides, resistance of the USD/CAD pair broke and turned to support a month ago (26th of January 2015). It should be noted that the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.2402. Hence, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2400/1.2390 with a first target at 1.2533 and continues towards 1.2594 which represents strong resistance on February 27, 2015. However, according to previous events, the price has still traded between 1.2402 and 1.2594. Thereupon, if the trend can break this level and close below the price of 1.2390, then we expect the market to gain a convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. For that reason, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.2594. As the price is below 1.2594, look for further downside with a target of 1.2420.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 02, 2015

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Besides, the US will release a number of economic reports such as the ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1221.
Strong Resistance:1.1215.
Original Resistance: 1.1204.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1193.
Target Inner Area: 1.1167.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1141.
Original Support: 1.1130.
Strong Support: 1.1119.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1113.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 3, 2015


EUR/USD: This pair is still bearish in outlook, and is not yet able to go upwards significantly, following a strong bearish run that happened at the end of last week. As long as this pair is weak, the USD/CHF (which normally gets negatively correlated to the EUR/USD) would not be able to go downwards. The price is currently between the support line at 1.1150 and the resistance line at 1.1200. The support line is likely to be breached to the downside but the price may be unable to close below it, because the outlook on the EUR is upbeat.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 9 - 2015


Technical summary: The decline towards an ideal downside target for wave (v) of C continues to unfold as expected. In the short term, we are looking for moving lower towards 129.64 and perhaps even lower towards 128.69 in blue wave iii. As we have seen a series of waves one and two, a series of waves three and four should unfold accordingly. Ideally, a minor resistance at 131.88 is likely to protect the upside from the expected decline towards 129.64

Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 133.90 and will lower our stop to 132.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell EUR near 131.88 with the same stop at 132.45.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 17, 2015


In Asia, Japan will release the results of the BOJ press conference and monetary policy statement. The US is expected to publish economic data about housing starts and building permits. So, there is a big probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 122.07. Resistance. 2: 121.83. Resistance. 1: 121.60. Support. 1: 121.31. Support. 2: 121.07. Support. 3: 120.83.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of GBP/YEN for March 18, 2015

After release of the BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes, the yen was trading higher against the pound. The cross erased its Monday's gains. It has been consolidating near the fate/fortune level. It's a big day for the US and UK. At the today's Asian session, the pound is trading higher against USD and JPY ahead of crucial big data. The cross is trading in the support zone around 177.95 and 177.80, 200Dema, and 200Dsma respectively. Monthly support is found at 176.70 50Wsma. Weekly resistance is seen at 181.50 and 181.65. The panic will be triggered in case the price closes below 177.80. The cross closes below 50Dsma, so the near and short-term outlooks remain bearish. On a weekly basis, the cross closes below 20Wsma and is trading below it. Until the price closes below 180.50, the bearish view remains in play. Intraday resistance is seen at 179.50. Intraday support is found at 179.60 and 179.10. Trade: selling below 179.60 with targets at 179.10,178.90 and 178.70. Panic below 177.80. Levels to watch- 177.95 177.80 last hope at 177.60. These are valid for this week.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 24, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair moved upwards by 150 pips on Monday, hitting the resistance line at 1.0950 before a shallow pullback. The resistance line would be overcome soon as the market targets another resistance line at 1.1000, which may also be breached easily as the market continues to be strong.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not going to release any economic data. However, the US is expected to publish data on Natural Gas Storage, the flash services PMI, and the number of unemployment claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 119.96.
Resistance. 2: 119.73.
Resistance. 1: 119.49.
Support. 1: 119.20.
Support. 2: 118.97.
Support. 3: 118.73.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 27, 2015

Overview: The NZD/USD pair is likely to continue straight from 0.7515. Support at 0.7515 coincides with ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 chart. Additionally, it is probably going to form a double bottom at the same level. Therefore, the kiwi shows signs of strength following the break through the highest levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550. So, it is going to be a good sign to buy above the support levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550 with the first target at 0.7603 in order to retest a weekly pivot point and further 0.9636 (it will act as strong resistance, it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that the level to take profit will coincide at 88.2% of Fibonacci at the same time frame). It should be noted that another resistance is set at the level of 0.7696, which represents the double bottom. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level at 0.7550, the market will be led to further decline to 0.7466 in order to indicate the bearish market on March 27, 2015.

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Euro Area Is Gaining Momentum

Recent euro-area data releases have consistently surprised to the upside, adding to evidence that the region's recovery is gaining momentum, according to Standard Chartered research notes. Consumption and net exports are likely to be driving growth in Q1, when GDP growth could reach as high as 0.5% q/q, and the conditions are in place for a sustained investment improvement after a prolonged downturn. The euro-area PMI composite has risen to 54.1 in March, the highest since May 2011. France and Italy remain the weakest major economies, but there are bright spots in both countries, with GDP growth likely to pick up from a dismal Q4-2014 in both cases. Meanwhile, Germany is off to a strong start and is likely to pull along some of its smaller neighbours. German companies are benefitting from a more competitive euro, and across the euro area growth of new orders for goods exports has hit an eight-month high, according to Markit. Consumption is also strengthening. Euro-area retail sales were up 3.7% y/y in January, the strongest annual increase since 2005. Consumer confidence is at the highest level since 2007 on the back of higher real disposable incomes, due to stronger earnings growth, the lower oil price and generally low inflation. Meanwhile Germany's labour market is strong, and immigration and a higher minimum wage should boost consumer spending. Across the euro area unemployment is falling, albeit from high levels in some countries. Bank lending data also point to a more supportive growth environment. The downtrend of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for sales and securitisation) eased further, reaching -0.4% y/y in February. Standard Chartered research forecasts that "this trend will continue and we will very soon see positive y/y growth in loans to corporations. Loans to households, which usually recover earlier than loans to corporations, were up 1% y/y in February, continuing the uptrend that begun around the middle of 2014. Moreover, the third targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) take-up was strong at EUR 97bn, a signal that banks expect demand for loans to pick up. TLTRO loans are particularly helpful for banks in the periphery." Greece, which was one of the best performers in 2014, has deteriorated very fast due to political uncertainty. The key risk for the euro area's recovery remains a sentiment deterioration, either over Greece or eastern Ukraine. Ongoing reform discussions with Greece are reaching a critical stage, with Athens due to run out of money over the next month unless bailout funds are released. In Ukraine, tensions have deescalated since the truce, but the situation remains sensitive

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 30 - 2015

Technical summary We are still looking for a close above the resistance line on the 4-hourly chart to confirm that a series of wave three is developing for a rally towards at least 1.4595. In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 1.4397 is going to be the first indication that resistance at 1.4495 is likely to be challenged again and a break above here should bring an acceleration higher than we are looking for. Only an unexpected break below support at 1.4287 will confuse the overall bullish picture.

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.4335 and will place our stop at 1.4275


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Daily analysis of USDX for April 06, 2015

The daily chart continues to show us a corrective phase of the USDX, as the index continues to move in favor of the bearish side but a corrective one as we mentioned above. The next floor or support zone is located at the level of 96.60, where we could expect a rebound to the resistance zone around 98.01. By the way, the bullish outlook is still alive. The USDX started this week with a deep bearish gap, which is now looking for support at the level of 96.54, more than 100 pips of empty zone. Now, the nearest resistance level is located around 97.08, where the USDX could begin to form a bullish pattern in order to reach the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. But the Index is still with the downside risk in the short term.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.12
Dailychart's support levels: 96.60 / 95.19
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.08 / 97.30
H1 chart's support levels: 96.54 / 96.25

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.08, take profit is at 97.30, and stop loss is at 96.85.

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 07, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver has dropped below the level of $17.00 as we discussed and expected earlier. The metal could still be unfolding its counter trend correction and push lower towards $16.00 before resuming rally. It is recommended to remain short with risk at the levels $17.50/60. A drop below $16.60 from here is likely to confirm the same. Immediate support is seen at $16.50/60 followed by $15.80 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $17.80/85 and higher respectively. Bears are expected to remain in control untill prices stay below $17.40/50.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop at $17.50/60, target $16.00.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 08, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups: The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be supported well around the level of 130.00 for now. The pair is seen to initiate/resume rally higher, and a break above 131.50 is likely to encourage bulls to go forward. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% positions now with risk at 128.50. Immediate support is seen at 128.50 followed by 128.00, 127.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 131.50 followed by 133.00 and higher respectively. Bulls shall look to remain in control untill prices stay above 128.50.

Trading recommendations: Initiate 50% long positions, stop at 128.50, target is open.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for Gold for April 10, 2015

The yellow metal has been extending its losses for three consecutive days. The US dollar rebounded from the lower levels, which dampened the momentum of the metal. After the FOMC minutes, the metal broke the 50Dsma and closed below that. At the FOMC meeting, several participants judged that economic data and outlook were likely to warrant normalization. However, others anticipated that the effects of lower energy prices and the depressed dollar would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions are unlikely to be appropriate for rates hike until later in the year. A couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook would not call for any increase until 2016. Eventually, the interest rate hike is imminent, but the matter is when it comes true. The interest rate hike has a negative influence on the metal. Today, the metal successfully held the previous day's low at the Asian session. Prices are consolidating at $1,192.00 for a day. Below this, 20Dsma is likely to appear at $1,187.00. The trend-change decider level is found at $1,178.00. In case of a daily close below $1,178.00, the current upswing will be cancelled. Intraday support is found at $1,192.00. We recommend selling below $1,192.00 with immediate target at $1,188.00, below $1,187.00 we can expect $1,180.00 and $1,178.00. The panic is going to be triggered below $1,178.00. In the H4 chart, the price fell below the ascending trend line and closed below that. In the hourly chart, we can observe lower highs and lower lows formation. Until the price closes below $1,206.00, the near term favors bears. Trade: Selling below $1,192.00 targets $1,188.00, $1,180.00 and $1,179.00


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Daily analysis of the USDX

There is a huge bullish momentum in place on the daily chart, because the USDX is back above the support level of 99.12 now, prepearing for a rally towards the resistance level at 100.51, which is an important one in this time frame. Bulls are strong and we recomment to find bullish patterns at lower time frames to ride this trend.
At the H1 chart, the USDX did an interesting bullish move after two higher high patterns formed on the way. Now, the Index is looking to consolidate above the resistance level of 99.55, in order to reach the psycological level of 100.00 in the nearest term. Also, this view is supported by the current position of the 200 SMA, which is bullish.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 100.51 / 101.95
Dailychart's support levels: 99.12 / 97.83
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.75 / 98.00
H1 chart's support levels: 97.30 / 97.08

Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 100.51, take profit is at 101.95, and stop loss is at 99.00.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 13, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair is very weak right now, owing to a deep weakness in EUR and a great strength of USD. In fact, EUR is one of the weakest currencies among the majors and so are most EUR pairs. A rally of 400 pips is significant enough to result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern and further plunge is expected this week.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 14, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any economic data. But the US will publish data on Business Inventories m/m, NFIB Small Business Index, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 120.51.
Resistance. 2: 120.28.
Resistance. 1: 120.04.
Support. 1: 119.76.
Support. 2: 119.52.
Support. 3: 119.28.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD

Strong bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4700 (previous weekly low). A significant bullish weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week. Shortly after, an evident bearish pressure was applied around 1.4960-1.5000. This price zone corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci level as well as the previous weekly demand, which was broken back in January 2015. Transient sideways movement with slight bearish tendency has been expressed on the daily chart until bearish breakdown of the daily demand level at 1.4700 took place last week. Projection target for this consolidation breakout would be located around the price level of 1.4440.


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Technical analysis of Crude for April 15, 2015

CRUDE: Iran Oil minister Bijan Namdar wants to cut OPEC production by 5% to 30mn barrels a day. The OPEC meeting is going ahead in June 05, in Vienna. Today, OPEC secretariat is going to release the monthly market report. This can reveal individual data for countries' oil production the March. The overall OPEC oil production stands at 30.72 million barrels per day in March. We didn't expect OPEC to cut production in the coming June meeting. It's going to be a big thump up. In the context of technical analysis, crude oil gave an upside breakout from the inverse head and shoulder. Parallel resistance is seen at $54.22. A daily close above $54.22 is likely to lead to $57.00, $58.50, and $59.00 in the coming weeks. A break below $47.00 will cancel the view. In the four-hour chart, the higher highs and higher lows formation takes place. Intraday support is found at $53.07 and resistance is seen at $54.22. Weekly resistance is seen at $55.65. In the daily chart, the prices closed above 20, 50 and 100Dsma. It turned me to bullish side. In case of a close above $55.65 100Dema, the price can move towards the given upside targets. On a positional view, we recommend buying between the current market price and $50.00 with sl 47.00 and targets at $55.50, $57.00, $58.00, $59.00, and $62.00. NUTSHEEL In case the price closes above $54.22, it is likely to touch $55.50 and $57.00 In case the price closes above $55.65, it is likely to touch $59.00 and $62.00

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 16, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any ecnomic data. The US will publish data on Natural Gas Storage, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, and Building Permits. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 119.52.
Resistance. 2: 119.29.
Resistance. 1: 119.05.
Support. 1: 118.78.
Support. 2: 118.54.
Support. 3: 118.30.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 20, 2015

When the European market opens, economic data on German Buba Monthly Report and German PPI m/m are due for release.The US will not publish any economic data. So, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0861.
Strong Resistance:1.0855.
Original Resistance: 1.0844.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0833.
Target Inner Area: 1.0808.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0783.
Original Support: 1.0772.
Strong Support: 1.0761.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0755.


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